How can rural communities become more resilient to extreme weather events?

Back in December 2022 the Government published its Resilience Framework. This took a strategic approach to resilience and led the Cabinet Office to reorganise its resilience functions to create separate capabilities for ‘preparedness & risk reduction’ and ‘crisis response.’ With global temperatures continuing to rise extreme weather events could become more frequent and severe. What has the Government been doing to prepare for extreme weather risks, and how will this increase the resilience of rural communities? Jessica Sellick investigates. ………………………………………………………………………………………………..

The Government assesses the most serious risks facing the UK and/or interests overseas using the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA). The National Risks Register (NRR) outlines the most serious risks facing the UK and is the external version of the NSRA. The Register contains those risks that would have a ‘substantial impact on the UK’s safety, security and/or critical systems at a national level.’ The latest register (published in August 2023) contains 89 risks under 9 themes: terrorism, cyber, state threats, geographic/diplomatic, accidents/systems failures, natural/environmental hazards, human/plant/animal health, societal, and conflict/instability. The NRR assesses the likelihood and impact of each risk, following a set methodology. This includes a reasonable worst-case scenario for each risk which is intended to represent the worst plausible manifestation of that particular risk, and the capabilities required to respond to and recover from the emergency should the risk materialise. 

The NRR identifies eight extreme weather events as national risks: (i) coastal flooding, (ii) drought, (iii) high temperatures and heatwaves, (iv) low temperatures and snow, (v) fluvial flooding, (vi) severe space weather, (vii) storms and (viii) surface water flooding. Such weather events are extreme because they ‘are significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.’ The Cabinet Office assigns ownership of acute national risks to Lead Government Departments (LGDs) who then support with risk identification and assessment, prevention, resilience, preparation, emergency response and recovery – although the LGD is subject to change during some or all of these phases. Similarly, some or all of these phases are devolved to the Government administrations in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. In addition to the LGD(s) the Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms (known as ‘COBR’ or ‘COBRA’) provides a focal point for all Government and local responder advice. 

According to the National Audit Office (NAO) extreme weather events are already having significant impacts: 

  • The impact on the economy (of lost profits) due to the 2012 drought was estimated at £96 million. 
  • 1.4 million properties were left without power during Storm Eunice in 2022. 
  • More than 4,500 deaths were associated with the hottest days in England in 2022, when temperatures passed 40 degrees for the first time since records began. 
  • Out of all the properties at risk of flooding (coastal, fluvial, groundwater and surface), 60% are at risk of surface water flooding. 
  • Extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent as global temperatures rise – with hot summers in the UK projected to double in frequency, with the chance they will be as hot as the summer of 2018 by 2050. 

How is the country preparing for future extreme weather events – and what more needs to be done to improve local and national resilience, particularly in rural communities? 

What is the Government’s Resilience Framework? The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to strengthen national resilience and to prepare the UK for future emergencies: 

“The immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our individual lives, wider society, and the entire world, cannot be overestimated. Millions of lives have been lost, millions of people have been infected, and whole countries plunged into lockdown. Nevertheless, it is sobering to realise that, despite its devastation, the COVID-19 pandemic may only be a relatively small upheaval, compared to other catastrophes that we may face in the future. The pandemic is a wake-up call: we now need a drastic overhaul of our approach to resilience and preparedness so that we are more ready to face future disasters”, House of Lords COVID-19 Committee, ‘Living in a COVID world: a long-term approach to resilience and wellbeing’ report, 2021-2022 (page 4). 

Back in 2021 the Cabinet Office set up the ‘National Situation Centre’ to bring data, analysis, and insight together to improve Government’s ability to identify, monitor and manage risks. The Government defines resilience as: ‘The ability to withstand or quickly recover from a difficult situation, but also to get ahead of risks and tackle challenges before they manifest’. The Government’s approach to resilience therefore includes anticipating, assessing, preventing, mitigating, responding to, and recovering from known or unknown, direct or indirect and/or emerging risks. They also established a ‘resilience directorate’ to strengthen the UK’s resilience; a ‘COBR Unit’ (also known as COBRA) to horizon scan and respond to acute emergencies; a resilience subcommittee of the National Security Council (NSC); and a UK Resilience Forum. The Cabinet Office also appointed a ‘Head of Resilience’ to provide leadership and coordination in building resilience across the UK. 

In December 2022 the Government published ‘The UK Government Resilience Framework’. This set out three principles to strengthen resilience: (1) the need for a shared understanding of the risks faced by the UK; (2) prevention rather than cure wherever possible; and (3) developing resilience requires a ‘whole society’ approach. The Framework contains key actions at UK-wide and England levels to strengthen resilience between now and up to 2030. These actions include: 

  • Risk: our understanding of national and local risks will be dynamic, driven by data and insight where appropriate, and informed by the best UK and international expertise and experience. The UK Government will communicate about risk in an accessible, actionable, and transparent way, so that everyone understands the risks they should plan for and how to protect themselves. 
  • Responsibilities and Accountability: in every part of the resilience system responsibilities and accountability will be clear, coordinated, and coherent. The crisis management and resilience capabilities within the UK Government will be overhauled and strengthened. Local Resilience Forums (LRFs)  within England will be strengthened and enhanced. The UK Government will have the emergency powers we need to act decisively in a crisis. 
  • Partnerships: with the private sector and experts will be strengthened to deliver and inform vital work on resilience. The UK Government will provide guidance on risk in order to help the private sector to meet new standards on resilience. These standards will be enforced through regulation only in the highest priority cases. The UK Government will continue to show leadership on resilience through international fora and through strong bilateral relationships. 
  • Communities: a strengthened partnership with the Voluntary and Community Sector will maximise their contribution to resilience at local and national levels. The UK Government will strengthen the standards for statutory responders in England to consider community resilience as an essential part of their work. Support for vulnerable groups will be improved through better guidance for the local tier. 
  • Investment: decisions by the UK Government will be underpinned by a shared understanding of risk and priorities, allowing for a better and more efficient use of our capabilities and resources. Models of funding for LRFs in England will be reviewed to ensure they are appropriate to the expectations placed upon them. Better information on risk will also help communities and households to decide how to invest in their own preparedness. 
  • Skills: a new Resilience Academy built out of the Emergency Planning College, and a skills and training pathway, will ensure that all those who work on resilience have the capability and knowledge to play their part.   

Each of these areas has its own dedicated action plan within the Framework containing a broad and tangible set of actions. The Government describes how: 

“[The Framework]…is the first step in our commitment to develop a wide and strategic approach to resilience. We are committed to working with partners, industry and academia from across the UK to implement this Framework but also as we continue to develop our approach….Working together to build our national resilience will mean we are better equipped to tackle the challenges that come our way, ensuring businesses grow, our communities thrive and citizens can build a brighter future” (The UK Government Resilience Framework, December 2022, page 1).  

Within the Framework extreme weather is categorised as a ‘non-malicious risk’ or ‘hazard’…‘characterised by natural or accidental causes’ (pages 75-76). Weather is also highlighted as being a cascading risk which refers to ‘The knock-on impacts of a risk that cause further physical, social, or economic disruption. For example, severe weather could cause flooding, which then causes damage to electricity infrastructure, resulting in a power outage which then disrupts communications service providers (and so on)” (page 73). The Framework also references the Department for Transport (DfT) review of ‘The resilience of the transport network to extreme weather events’ back in 2014 and the implementation of its recommendations with the private sector since then.    

How has the Framework been implemented? Back in 2021 the Royal Academy of Engineering was commissioned by the Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat to undertake an external review of the NSRA methodology. Through case studies and interviews with private and public sector risk owners, seven principles of good practice were identified: 

  1. Ensure a joined-up approach: provide opportunities for collaboration so that prevention and mitigation strategies deliver greater resilience than individual actions. 
  2. Encourage participation and communicate clearly: bring stakeholders together to identify interdependencies, groups facing disproportionate impact or cascade consequences that one department alone might not anticipate. 
  3. Focus on impact: decision making should be driven by impact and preparedness. 
  4. Explore interdependencies: bring risk owners from different parts of the system together to uncover and plan for interdependencies that may not be revealed when risks are considered in isolation. 
  5. Consider a range of scenarios: identify a range of different response capabilities and explore the cascading of risks and consequences with systematic impacts. 
  6. Embed new data and metrics: confidence in data must be high and models must be carefully evaluated and paired with real-world information. 
  7. Review based on need: the timeline for assessing risks should be based on need [how sensitive those risks are to technological and societal changes] rather than on a standard time interval. 

“This review has been an opportunity to learn from a diverse range of industry sectors, academia, and government. We are pleased that the review is referenced in the National Resilience Framework…Implementing the lessons learned will not be easy, as risk, resilience and organisational culture are closely intertwined. But with the lived experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, now is the time to foster a resilience-orientated culture that drives action to make the UK a safer, more prepared nation for everyone”, Professor Joan Cordiner FREng FRSE, who led the Academy’s review of the NSRA.

In December 2023, the Government published an Implementation Update on the UK Government Resilience Framework. This set out the progress made by Government in delivering on its objectives to increase the UK’s resilience and preparedness for risks, and excellence in crisis management. The Update highlighted: 

  • The publication of the first event NRR, and bringing actors together from across the resilience community, to take a ‘whole of society’ approach to resilience. 
  • How the Resilience Directorate, under the Head of Resilience at the Cabinet Office, has continued to develop the Government’s strategic approach to resilience. Improvements made to the risk assessment process (e.g. defining chronic and acute risks which are likely to manifest as emergencies) were cited; as well as examples of how Government is working more closely with LDGs to drive action to prevent risks from manifesting in the first place – this includes publishing updated emergency management responsibilities for LGDs in August 2023. 
  • How the COBR Unit, under the Director of COBR, has responded to extreme weather, major water outages, flooding, a breakdown of National Air Traffic Services (NATS) Flight Planning System and evacuations of British Nationals from several crisis hit countries. 
  • How Government is developing capabilities and tools to provide information to citizens. For example, the Government has tested the UK-wide Emergency Alert System and launched the Crisis Management Excellence Programme to upskill Government officials on crisis response. 
  • A focus on delivering prevention rather than cure, with the Resilience Directorate and COBR Unit working closely to bring together the disciplines of resilience, risk, and crisis management, and ensuring Government works together with partners to get ahead of known risks. For example, planning for winter risks – including focusing on those vulnerable to winter conditions. 

“The Implementation Update provides a summary of what has been achieved in driving resilience since we published the UK Resilience Framework…But we must not stand still….we look forward to building further on this work in 2024. There is a lot more to come,” Oliver Dowden, Deputy Prime Minister, and Cabinet Minister with responsibility for risk and resilience (2023, page 4). 

Alongside the publication of the Implementation Update, Oliver Dowden CBE, presented the Annual Resilience Statement to Parliament. The Statement emphasised the need for individuals and households to take more significant steps to raise their resilience at the household level, including advice to prepare for power cuts. 

Also in December 2023, the National Audit Office (NAO) published a report looking at Government resilience to extreme weather. The NAO’s work covered three main areas: (i) Does the UK Government have a clear vision and well-defined roles and responsibilities to manage national risks such as extreme weather events? (ii) Does the Government have a clear understanding of the impacts extreme weather events can have in England? (iii) Has the UK Government taken appropriate action to prepare for, respond to, and prevent the potential impacts of extreme weather events in England? 

The NAO found: 

  • Since 2021, Government has strengthened the arrangements to manage national risks. For example, during a period of extreme heat in July 2022, the Cabinet Office National Situation Centre worked with partners to identify vulnerable groups and locations, helping Government to target support effectively. 
  • Government focuses on common consequences of risks and the ability to respond via generic capabilities, as well as planning for specific risks where this will make the most difference. For example, Government takes lessons from the National Exercising Programme, and has a new chronic risk analysis to provide evidence on future risk trajectories. 
  • But Government has yet to set out how resilient it would like the UK to be, either to all risks in aggregate or to the most specific risks. The three principles underpinning the UK Government Resilience Framework while welcomed do not set out targets or standards for the desired level of national, local, and sectoral resilience. For extreme weather risks Government has not specified (except for drought) the target level of resilience or the amount of risk it is willing to accept –  without these, Government cannot make informed decisions about trade-offs between priorities and resource allocation. 
  • Government is taking steps to address extreme weather risks as whole-system risks but needs to do more to strengthen assurance arrangements. Where multiple LGDs have ownership of an extreme weather risk, coordinated action is also required across Government and beyond. This also means some roles and responsibilities for managing risks are not clear. For example, it is not always clear who the public should contact when surface water flooding occurs. 
  • Government has good forecasting data for droughts, heatwaves, and storms, but less so for surface water flooding. 
  • Government develops its understanding of extreme weather impacts from previous events but lacks information on less common events. While Government has identified lessons from emergencies (e.g. Cabinet Office UK Resilience Lessons Digests), the NAO saw less evidence of Government implementing learning from actual events. 
  • Government does not yet have a good understanding of the interaction between different risks, the further impacts that this can have, and how risks in one system can have knock-on effects in another system. For example, during Storm Arwen, problems with the power network affected communication networks and people’s ability to access emergency services.
  • Government produces ‘reasonable worst-case scenarios’ but some recent events have exceeded planning assumptions. For example, during Storm Arwen customer call volumes exceeded the planning assumptions. 
  • Adaptation action can help to reduce the future costs of extreme weather events. For example, analysis undertaken for the Climate Change Committee (CCC) indicates the average benefit to cost ratios for the following measures were: water efficiency measures (11:1), heat alert and heatwave planning (10.5:1), weather and climate services including early warning (9:1), and flood preparedness and protection (6:1). But the CCC found little evidence that Government is driving adaptation at the pace and scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK. 
  • Government is committed to developing a coordinated approach to investment in resilience, but this approach may not be ready until 2030. Indeed, Government does not know how much the public sector is spending to  manage extreme weather risks because action is taken across a wide range of organisations, and because there is no common definition of what constitutes resilience activity. 
  • Government has done less to encourage private sector investment in resilience to extreme weather events and climate change than other long-term challenges such as net zero. 
  • There is limited evidence of Government testing and assuring contingency plans. For example, LRFs produce emergency plans but central Government has no direct oversight of these plans and does not assure them. 
  • The Government’s use of regulation and standards to support the development of resilience to extreme weather events is currently limited – with a commitment to introducing new standards for resilience by 2030. 
  • Government can do more to ensure that alerts reach individuals at risk in good time. While The Met Office issues severe weather warnings, and the public can sign up to flood warnings from the Environment Agency, surveys show that public awareness of the risk of surface water flooding is low and that people do not know who to report these incidents to when they happen. 

The NAO concluded that “for the extreme weather risks we examined, government has yet to set out what outcome it is looking to achieve in managing these risks and the amount of risk that it is willing to accept in the pursuit of those outcomes (risk appetite). Government does not know how much is being spent on managing extreme weather risks. Without this information it is difficult to conclude on whether its current approach represents value for money” (page 16). The report contained six recommendations: 

  1. The Cabinet Office, working with other departments, should strengthen leadership, accountability, and assurance arrangements for the management of extreme weather risks. 
  2. The Cabinet Office should review the current risk and resilience structures and identify any gaps in its system-wide oversight of national risks. 
  3. The Cabinet Office should set out what a resilient UK looks like, a strategy to deliver this, and the specific roles of Government, the private and voluntary sectors, and the public. 
  4. LDGs, working with the Cabinet Office, should develop a set of resilience standards for infrastructure and give regulators consistent climate resilience roles. 
  5. The Cabinet Office, working with HM Treasury and other departments, should develop a coordinated, prioritised approach to investment in climate and wider resilience by 2025, and implement it by 2028. 
  6. LDGs, working with HM Treasury and the Cabinet Office, should encourage greater investment in climate adaptation from the private sector. 

What does this mean for rural communities? In May 2024, the Government unveiled a new website for individuals and households to take some simple steps to ensure they are ready for a range of possible scenarios. In asking, ‘how would you prepare for an emergency?’ the website includes information on how to find out if there are specific emergencies you might be more at risk of than others, depending on where you live, work, or are travelling to. This signposts people to LRFs, how to check your flood risk, check the weather forecast, check the pollution forecast, and check country specific travel advice for your destination. For extreme weather events, the site contains specific sections on hot weather and heatwaves, cold weather, snow and ice, droughts, flooding, and storms. The “Prepare” website has received widespread media coverage amid Government advice to citizens to stock-up on wind-up torches, bottled water (up to 10 litres per day) and food (tinned goods). 

The UK Government Resilience Framework, Implementation Update, Annual Statement and Prepare Campaign website contain no direct references on, or advice for, rural communities. Yet according to the Countryside Climate Network, rural communities are at the frontline of climate change impacts, and more extreme weather. Some examples include:  

  • The publication of an academic study in May 2022 which looked at the impact of heatwaves on southeast England and Aberdeenshire. Researchers found more people in rural areas of England to be severely ill from heatwaves today than they were in the 1980s and called on policymakers not to forget the countryside when formulating solutions to climate change: “Heatwaves are getting deadlier, even in Britain. We already knew that the urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem in cities, but now we also have proof that people living in less built-up areas are also threatened…people living in the Southeast of England are now seven per cent more likely to die prematurely when the temperature rises significantly (about 6 degrees Centigrade) above 26.5 degrees Centigrade. In Aberdeenshire, the risk of dying prematurely increases by four per cent, compared to the Southeast of England, when the temperature increases by just two degrees from 24.5 degrees C to 26.7 degrees C.”    
  • Research by the Resolution Foundation highlighted how flood defence funding is skewed towards cities and urban areas and needs to reach deprived neighbourhoods at risk of flooding in rural areas; and low-income families need support to be able to afford contents insurance. 
  • A debate on resilience to extreme weather events in the House of Commons in January 2024. This highlighted the piloting of the River Cam flood warning system with laser depth measuring devices and real-time messaging and alerts to residents when water levels start to rise as part of calls for funding more extreme weather resilience plans for isolated rural communities. 
  • A blog produced by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in May 2024, highlighted how, between October 2023 and March 2024, England experienced the second wettest 6-month period on record [nearly 60% above the 10-year average], leading to devastating and long-term impacts on farming, with soil erosion, crop damage and flooding. In describing how “This disruption not only affects the livelihoods of farmers and land managers but also has wider implications for food security and the economy,” Defra set out a range of support measures, temporary adjustments, and easements in place to support farmers and land managers to deal with the impact of severe weather in England.
  • The NFU’s Farmer Confidence Survey shows that short and mid-term confidence is at its lowest level since records began in 2010. The relentless wet weather has played a big part, with 82% of respondents saying their farm businesses have suffered fairly negative (52%) or very negative impacts (30%), with mixed farms, arable farms and dairy farms having taken the biggest hits. The survey was undertaken in November and December 2023. Since then, farmers have battled relentless heavy rain through January, February, March and much of April. For example, farmer Henry Ward in Lincolnshire has described the impact of three flood events on his land and livelihood.  
  • Back in 2018 Storm Emma caused major disruption in the North of England, particularly snow storms in Cumbria, cutting off many rural communities for several consecutive days. More recently, in May 2022 an independent review of the difficulties suffered by rural communities during Storm Arwen was published.  This recommended that SP Energy Networks should look to equip teams deployed in rural areas after a storm with satellite communications systems to ensure the extent of damage can be established amid loss of mobile connectivity; undergrounding sections of the network shown to be most vulnerable to storm damage in rural locations; remote rural properties would benefit from other sources of power (e.g. small wind turbines); and consider how the resilience of rural networks can best be enhanced.  

Outside of the UK, researchers in the United States have found rural residents may be more vulnerable to extreme weather due to lack of local government capacity, as well as less availability of government funding for prevention and recovery compared to urban settings. The Rural Health Information Hub provides information and advice to help rural community members to prepare for extreme weather. Studies in Australia reveal rural residents to be particularly worried about the financial burden associated with extreme weather events (especially water related extremes in the case of rural Australians) and the lack of government policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation. 

Back in the UK what more can be done to support rural communities to prepare for and respond to extreme weather? Applying a rural lens could involve some or all of the following steps: 

  • For the eight extreme weather events identified as national risks, how can we use data, analysis, research, and insights to understand how they manifest (both individually, cumulatively and/or events in succession) in rural communities? What are/would the knock-on impacts be? 
  • Develop a common and shared understanding of the extreme weather events risk faced by rural communities (who/where is the most vulnerable?) – and we need to ensure this feeds into the work of individual LRFs, LGDs and other stakeholders involved in emergency preparedness at the local tier, and then collated and assured nationally by the Cabinet Office. 
  • If prevention is better than cure, what assets are already in rural areas and what investments and resources are needed to prevent, mitigate, or reduce the impact of extreme weather events? Where the resources that would be required cannot be deployed or afforded, there needs to be an open dialogue with rural communities about trade-offs in resource allocation. 
  • How can initiatives like the Prepare campaign communicate with rural residents and businesses – so individuals know how to prepare, what to do during and immediately after an event, including who to contact? What more can be done to support rural communities to plan for and protect themselves from extreme weather events? 

Where next? As part of the Integrated Review Refresh, the Government has established a new process for identifying, assessing and managing ‘chronic risks’ [these are long-term challenges that gradually erode national security and way of life] alongside the ‘acute risks’ highlighted in this article. While recognising the need to do more to build resilience, the Refresh also makes no direct reference to rural communities. If there is more to come from the UK Resilience Framework, how can we ensure it duly considers the needs, vulnerabilities, priorities, assets, and resource allocation of rural communities? 

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Jessica is a project manager at Rose Regeneration and a senior research fellow at The National Centre for Rural Health and Care (NCRHC). She is currently evaluating a service that supports older people to maintain their independence; and reviewing neighbourhood-based initiatives (NBI). Jessica also sits on the board of a charity supporting  rural communities across Cambridgeshire and is a member of her local Patient Participation Group. 

She can be contacted by email jessica.sellick@roseregeneration.co.uk. 

Website: http://roseregeneration.co.uk/https://www.ncrhc.org/ 

Blog: http://ruralwords.co.uk/ 

Twitter: @RoseRegen