What impact will demographic trends have on rural populations?
2.1 is a key number: it is the replacement rate, or the number of children women need to have (on average) to maintain a given population when you consider mortality. Anything below 2.1 indicates a falling population. In October 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published births data for England and Wales in 2023. The figures reveal that the total fertility rate has dropped to 1.44 children per woman, the lowest values since records began in 1938. What demographic trends and process are affecting rural populations, and what can we do to unlock the demographic potential of rural areas? Jessica Sellick investigates.
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While demographic studies such as Censuses were carried out more than 6,000 years ago, demography as a discipline can be traced back to the 17th century and the statistician John Graunt (1620-1674) who, using ratios obtained by comparing years in the Bills of Mortality and calculating using the Rule of Three, was able to estimate the size of the population of London and England, as well as birth rates, mortality rates, and the rise and spread of certain diseases. He subsequently published five editions of his analysis which contained a series of life tables and causes of death. Gaunt was followed by William Petty (1623-1687) who applied methods of estimation to the population – starting with London and then multiplying this by 8 to obtain an estimated population for all of England.
Edmond Halley (1656-1742) obtained demographic data for Breslau [now Wrocław] covering the period 1687-1691 which, unlike Gaunt’s work in London, included the ages of deceased people. His analysis revealed that annual births were equal to deaths, that there was little migration in or out of the city, and that the city had a population of 34,000 people. He also calculated that there were 15,000 persons aged 16-45 years of whom at least 7,000 were women capable to bear children (estimated at 1,238 births).
Richard Price (1723-1791) developed a theory of contrasting depopulation, calculating that England and Wales’s populations had dropped by 25% since 1688. Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) observed that as a country’s food supply improved the wellbeing of the population this improvement was only temporary because it led to population growth requiring increased food production (an idea that became known as the ‘Malthusian trap’ where population growth outpaces agricultural production).
Taken as a collective, all five commentators used analytical reasoning, arithmetical records, and numerical problem solving to study the (changing) numbers and structures of human societies. The purpose of this body of work was often related to setting life insurance rates or estimating the number of men of military age or women of childbearing age. While they initially concentrated their efforts on mortality rates, they eventually began to study birth and fertility rates too. Today, the discipline of demography is concerned with the statistical study of human populations.
Why does demography matter? Data collection and analysis can tell us about the structure of a population according to the number of births, deaths, and migration in and outside of an area. It builds a picture of how a population has changed, is changing, and to make predictions about what might happen in the future.
- Knowing the size of the working age population is important for economies and public finances – from estimating tax receipts and social security expenditure through to assessments of Government borrowing. Comparing the number of people aged under 16 years of age and those of pensionable age to the working age population, for example, provides an assessment of the number of people able to pay taxes (and the ‘dependency ratio’).
- Knowing the size of the older population is important for providing infrastructure and services (particularly health, social care, transport, housing) – and to ensure older people are supported to remain as healthy and independent as possible for as long as possible.
- Knowing the size of the younger population is important – from understanding how many school places are needed through to youth services, training and skills and employment provision.
- Knowing about fertility rates is important in telling us whether people are growing their families and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and replacement rate.
- Knowing about mortality rates is important in telling us about the general health of a population – and whether we can identify and make improvements within societies to reduce deaths.
- Knowing patterns of migration is important in telling us about the flow of people into and out of an area – i.e., the net migration [the difference between the number of people arriving (immigration) and leaving (emigration)].
The data and statistics underpinning these measures are all shaped by individual, household, socio-economic and environmental factors. In this way, the numbers themselves do not always tell us about people’s circumstances, motivations, or the impacts they have (positive and negative). But this information is important in ensuring a given population is sustainable. For example, globally the fertility rate is 2.3 births per woman – above the replacement rate of 2.1 necessary to keep the population stable – but a decline from 2.7 in 2000. While in England and Wales, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data in October 2024 revealing that the fertility rate is at its lowest level on record at 1.44 children per woman. The number of children born in England and Wales has been falling for the last decade and is at its lowest since 1977, while the average age of first-time mothers is at an all-time high.
What are the demographic trends in rural areas? The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) collates and publishes statistics on rural England. As of July 2023, the findings reveal:
- Around ten million people live in rural areas, however the rural population is growing at a slower rate than the urban population.
- In rural areas, more people are aged 50-59 years compared to any other age group whereas in urban areas the age range is 30-39 years. One in four people living in rural areas is 65 years of age or older. The average age of a resident in a rural area is over 40 years of age, compared to under 40 years of age in urban areas.
- The more rural the area the older the average age and the faster this average age is increasing.
- Net internal migration within tends to be towards Predominantly Rural areas, and the rate of this migration has grown since 2011; the exception to this is amongst those aged 17-20 years of age who are leaving Predominantly Rural areas in search of education and training opportunities. Net migration to rural areas is largest amongst those people in their thirties.
- Twelve million people lived in a Predominantly Rural Local Authority in 2020; this is 21.3% of the England population. North Norfolk is the only Local Authority where more than one-third of the population are aged 65 years and over.
In Scotland, approximately 17% of the population live in rural areas, with 6% living in ‘remote rural’ [more than 30 minutes’ drive away from a settlement with a population of 10,000 or more]. Between 2011 and 2019 the population increased by 0.1% in remote rural areas, 8% in accessible rural areas and 3% in the rest of Scotland; 26% of the population in remote rural areas is aged 65 years or over, compared with 21% in accessible rural areas and 3% in the rest of the country. In Wales, 12% of the population lives outside of a settlement – with 21% living in small villages or hamlets with a population of less than 5,000 people. In Northern Ireland, 36% of the population live in a rural area, with the number of people living in rural areas increasing by 20% between 2001 and 2020 compared to 7% growth in urban areas.
Within the European Union, the number of people living in predominantly rural regions was 20.8% – with working age people (aged 20-64 years of age) and young people (under the age of 20 years) accounting for relatively low shares of the total population. Between January 2015 and January 2021, while the population of predominantly rural regions fell by 0.1% per year, the population of predominantly urban regions increased by 9.4% each year. Rural regions in the far north, south and east of the EU have experienced a greater exodus of people to cities. While in the United States, the number of people residing in nonmetropolitan areas in July 2022 was 46 million people, or 13.8% of the total population. After declining or negligible growth rates between 2010 and 2020, the population in nonmetropolitan areas grew by a quarter percent between mid-2020 to mid-2022 (attributed to gains in net domestic migration).
Even though some rural populations are growing it is at a slower rate than their urban counterparts. The average age of residents in rural areas is higher and increasing faster than in urban areas and there is a net outward migration of young people.
What is depopulation – where is it happening and why is it important? Depopulation occurs when an area experiences substantial population loss over a protracted period resulting in significant population decline. In a rural context, depopulation is the result of outmigration and fewer births.
On 11 September 2024, a debate on depopulation in rural areas took place in Westminster Hall. Chaired by Valerie Vaz it included contributions from MPs representing Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Orkney and Shetland, Perth and Kinross-shire, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Strangford, Dumfries and Galloway, Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, Ceredigion Preseli, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Stockton West, and Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr.
According to John Cooper (Dumfries and Galloway) “Depopulation is the curse of rural areas – a blight that creeps up and strangles the lifeblood. It can precipitate a crisis, after which shops and schools close, and so communities wither and die. It is a multiheaded hydra of a problem, and we are hearing that today. There is no one course, therefore, there is no one solution. There is no magic wand here. Bright lights and big cities will always have their charms…but we need to make moving away from a rural area a choice not a necessity.”
The debate centred around the out-migration of young people and/or economically active families, access to services (e.g. public transport, health, childcare, schools, banks, digital infrastructure, training, and skills development), jobs, affordable housing, and immigration.
Rural depopulation is not universal, with the prevalence, timing, and magnitude of depopulation varying: while some rural areas are experiencing depopulation, other rural areas are experiencing population growth. Within the UK, for example, while the data suggests people are moving into rural areas in some parts (e.g. Northern Ireland), other areas are running out of people to take up key public, private or voluntary sector posts to keep communities going (e.g. Scotland – particularly across the islands and in the West). For areas experiencing depopulation a reduced working age population impacts on labour supply and the economic viability of an area and the availability of public services and the deterioration or loss of local community facilities and services.
In England, for example, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown periods led many to rethink their homes and where they lived – with an increase in the number of buyers looking for rural properties, and more people wanting to be able to continue to work from home and spend less time commuting. This interest in living and working in the countryside was not sustained by all those who migrated from urban areas during the pandemic, with some people prioritising being closer to work over having more space.
The findings of a survey published by Virgin Media 02 in July 2024 found over a third of rural residents said they were ‘likely to consider moving away to an urban area in the next 12 months’, with 66% of respondents aged 16-24 years considering leaving. Overall, 57% of respondents were concerned that the number of residents planning to leave rural areas risks a rural-urban brain drain.
There was a suggestion during the debate that when the Cabinet Office looks at the range of risks it monitors as part of its remit, it should look at demographic trends in rural, coastal and island communities.
How can we respond to the demographic trends shaping rural areas?
The data and evidence show that there are significant challenges and opportunities on the horizon for rural areas – with some rural communities growing (albeit at a slower rate than they previously were, or in comparison to urban areas) while others are experiencing significant loss. What can we do to ensure the sustainability of rural communities?
Firstly, we need to review our data collection and monitoring to see if/how we can better understand the demographic changes taking place in rural areas in recent and real-time. While the Census gives us an understanding of our population at a certain point in time, it typically only happens once every ten-years. Back in November 2021, the ONS announced a series of measures it would be implementing to provide regular and timely population and migration statistics at both national and local levels. This was intended to reduce the under-coverage or over-coverage of certain population groups at local levels by moving away from information from the Census to admin-based household estimates (ABHEs). This enables ONS to publish provisional population estimates six months earlier than using current methods. How can we build on the official statistics in development to ensure we can infer information about rural communities more generally, and different kinds of rural areas using the Rural Urban Classification? The rural evidence base we build also needs to include qualitative research to provide us with rich insights into what is driving demographic changes in rural communities.
Secondly, public bodies, businesses and communities have been undertaking a range of actions to ensure population sustainability. What can we learn from these initiatives – which work well in encouraging sustainable communities and which work less well (and why)?
In Scotland, for example, 1 of the 81 indicators in the National Performance Framework (NPF) covers depopulation and this sits alongside a Population Programme Dashboard. In Uist, a community consultation and research project was set up to inform the work of the Uist Repopulation Action Zone Working Group. This identified six critical areas for action: (1) housing – including new developments, serviced plots, key worker accommodation, empty home repurposing and new entrant croft; (2) jobs – business support, skills packages and business hubs; (3) infrastructure – improved roads, ferries and broadband; (4) access to services; (5) talent attraction – encouraging people to return or move to the island; and (6) Gaelic language and culture.
Grow Remote in Ireland was founded in 2018 by volunteers who wanted to prevent young people from having to move to urban areas. Remote working is seen as an essential key to enabling people to live, work and participate locally. The organisation supports employers to provide remote job opportunities, trains people in remote work ready skills, and facilitates the recruitment of people living in Ireland to remote job positions. While the Rock the Cotswolds campaign seeks to change perceptions about the Cotswolds, retain and attract the best talent, drive investment, and encourage visitors to see and do unique things.
More widely, some countries have been investing in family planning (e.g. providing generous childcare provision, tax breaks and fully paid maternity leave). Since the mid-2010s, the Hungarian Government has introduced a range of policies offering grants and loans to parents and would-be parents. Families choosing to have three or more children can access generous tax breaks and heavily subsidised mortgages. Mothers with four or more children are exempt from paying income taxes. While Hungary’s TFR has increased from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.51 in 2023, it is still below the 2.1 needed to sustain its population, and it is unclear if the increase can be attributed to Government policies.
Some countries are looking at how they can keep their populations healthier and employed for longer. Singapore, for example, has raised the retirement age and is encouraging companies to hire older workers; and in Western Australia the Government is investing in infrastructure, workforce and service delivery to meet the needs of ageing populations. Other countries are looking at increasing immigration. Germany, for example, has a job-search visa scheme which enables skilled workers from non-EU member states to come for six months to look for work; a Skilled Immigration Act (FEG) to make it easier for skilled workers to immigrate, and an opportunity card work visa scheme for skilled workers. Back in the UK, the Scottish Government has called for a Scottish Rural Community Immigration Pilot (SRCIP).
Thirdly, while populations are not fixed things – indeed every rural area will experience demographic issues differently – what is our vision for the future of rural communities and what building blocks do we need to put in place to work towards achieving this at local, regional, and national levels? What infrastructure needs to be in place to support current and future rural populations? For example, should we be concerned with bringing together a number of different policy areas (e.g. health, social care, work, pensions, transport, connectivity etc) to develop cross-cutting solutions? Or do we take a place-based approach – perhaps looking at who/where our anchor institutions are and how we can harness these to assist people to grow, live, work and age in rural communities?
“…ask a simple question: will this make it more or less likely for people to want to live here? Without a healthy and growing population, we risk losing the critical mass, and within that critical mass, we do not have the mix. Every population – every community – needs to have a mix of the professional, the technical, the skilled and the semi-skilled, and the unskilled”, Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland).
“We need to do better at some things if we are to encourage more people to take up rural living and to bring their skills and qualities to rural life. We need to ensure that there is adequate broadband for home working and small businesses. We have to move with the times”, Jim Shannon (Strangford).
Where next? According to ONS projections, the UK population will increase by 6.6 million people between 2021 and 2036, with net migration expected to contribute more than 90% towards this growth. Professor Sarah Harper at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing describes how the UK has not replaced itself by births alone since 1976, drawing on a healthy migration policy instead.
This all leaves us with three key issues: (1) how to maintain a sizeable total population size; (2) how to maintain sustainable age structures within a population; and (3) how to maintain spatial balance of population across urban and rural areas.
“If depopulation is one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse for rural Britain, then indifference is coming up on the rail, and that is something that we as politicians can tackle…We need to lift the profile of rural Britain. We can rail against the urban-centric policies of those who do not understand what rural life, with all its challenges and all its benefits, is truly about. Most importantly, we must fight for the 3 j’s: jobs, jobs, jobs”, John Cooper (Dumfries and Galloway).
“We know that an ageing population pattern is part of a Europe-wide trend, and somehow we kid ourselves that this is an over-the-horizon event that we will deal with later, but for us in the islands, it is an urgent reality, and our breakfast will become everyone else’s lunch; if we do not address these issues on the edge of Europe, they will become structural problems for the rest of the country and the rest of the continent”, Torcuil Crichton
While none of us has a crystal ball, demography needs to be at the forefront of policy and decision making: will birth rates keep falling? How might new inventions and innovations drive efficiency and productivity (e.g. Artificial Intelligence)? If future generations fail to arrive in the numbers we need how can we do more with fewer people? What does this all mean for the future of rural communities – will this lead to the abandonment of some settlements and growth in others? Watch this space.
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Jessica is a project manager at Rose Regeneration and a senior research fellow at The National Centre for Rural Health and Care (NCRHC). She is currently measuring the impact of a service that supports patients living with and beyond cancer; and reviewing neighbourhood-based initiatives (NBI). Jessica also sits on the board of a charity supporting rural communities across Cambridgeshire and is a member of her local Patient Participation Group.
She can be contacted by email jessica.sellick@roseregeneration.co.uk.
Website: http://roseregeneration.co.uk/https://www.ncrhc.org/
Blog: http://ruralwords.co.uk/
Twitter: @RoseRegen
