What does the future public service workforce look like?

Back in July 2022 the House of Lords Public Services Committee published its report ‘Fit for the future? Rethinking the public services workforce’. This identified how public sector staffing was “facing a crisis” due to a “vicious circle” of increasing demand, staff shortages, low morale and recruitment issues. What does this crisis mean for rural areas, and what can be done to secure a public services workforce for the future? Jessica Sellick investigates. ………………………………………………………………………………………………..

How many people work in the public sector? 

According to the Institute for Government (IfG), the public sector ‘consists of all workers employed by the state – whether UK Government departments, devolved Governments, Local Authorities or other Government agencies and public bodies’. The Census collects data on public sector personnel. This comprises people employed in central and local government, and public corporations, including people with second jobs in the public sector. The House of Lords Select Committee on Public Services, however, considers public services in a broader sense – including the role of community-level initiatives and private, voluntary and charitable sectors. All of these definitions exclude organisations such as museums or universities – which despite receiving taxpayer funding in some instances – are defined as private sector organisations. Indeed, some private sector bodies have found themselves reclassified as public sector bodies and vice versa. For example: Royal Bank of Scotland (included as a public sector body since Q4 2008), further education and sixth form college corporations (private sector since Q1 2012); Royal Mail (private since Q3 2013) and English Housing Associations (private since Q4 2017). 

A statistical bulletin published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in December 2022 estimated that there 5.77 million employees were working in the public sector in September 2022 – 28,000 (or 0.5%) more than in June 2022 and 73,000 (1.3%) more compared to September 2021. It attributes the increase to the impact of COVID-19 on the NHS and Civil Service, and to Local Authority schools becoming academies:  

• Employment in Central Government was estimated at 3.57 million in September 2022, a rise of 22,000 (0.6%) compared with June 2022, and 74,000 (2.1%) compared with September 2021.   
• The NHS employed an estimated 1.90 million people in September 2022, an increase of 12,000 (0.6%) compared with June 2022 and an increase of 47,000 (2.5%) compared with September 2021. 
• Employment in Local Government was estimated at 2.00 million in September 2022, an increase of 3,000 (0.2%) since June 2022, but a decrease of 3,000 (0.1%) since September 2021. 
• There were 513,000 employees in the Civil Service in September 2022, up 1,000 (0.2%) compared with June 2022, and up 8,000 (1.6%) compared with September 2021.
• Private sector employment was at estimated at 27.00 million in September 2022, slightly lower than for June 2022 (by 1,000) but higher than in September 2021 (by 117,000).

According to its definition, the IfG estimates 5.6 million people were employed by the public sector in Q1 2022. While the number of people employed by the public sector reduced between 2009 and 2016, the impact of Brexit and COVID-19 have seen numbers increase – there are now just 1% fewer employees in 2022 compared to 2009. It is estimated that the public sector now makes up 17.5% of total employment. 

What skills do we need (now and in the future) in the public sector? 

In 2021, the OECD published its report on the future of public services. This looked at the factors affecting the work of civil service leaders from OECD countries, and the employment policies needed to support their work. The report highlights how: ‘in the short to medium term, public servants will be called upon not only to help manage the health, social and economic impacts of the [COVID-19] crisis, but to also find innovative solutions to help rebalance budget deficits in the immediate aftermath of recessions. The opportunity and policy challenge is to find a way to use budgetary pressure and high expectations from citizens to spark transformation in the public sector rather than making short-term cuts that freeze renewal and stunt progress, as was often the experience resulting from the 2008 financial crisis’. Leaders participating in the study generally agreed that: 

• The promise of new technology to improve government service delivery will only be achieved with a commensurate investment in the capabilities of civil servants.
• Change is not new but is happening at a pace that requires constant reconsideration of what civil servants know, and how they learn and acquire new knowledge.
• Civil services need to become more flexible, agile and responsive in the way they organise, reward and employ.
• There are important new possibilities to focus people management on the experience of work, public service values, mission and the public good to attract and retain diverse employees.

In reflecting on the public service workforce that is needed to deliver post-pandemic policies today, and into the future to respond to the next set of crises, three overarching reflections were offered: 

1. A forward-looking public service is one that is able to identify the emerging technical skills and competencies needed to ensure resilience in an increasingly uncertain future. This will require workforce planning methods that recognise uncertainty and prepare for the next shock.
2. A flexible public service in the future will be one where different kinds of people work from more locations at different times, contributing their skills and experience to projects, across multi-disciplinary teams, and learning as they go. This will require flexibility, a culture of learning, better risk management and experimentation.
3. The public service of the future will attract, retain and optimise the use of the skills it needs by providing fulfilling work experience to an increasingly diverse range of employees. This will require improved job design to increase autonomy and recognise employees as individuals.

In January 2022, the House of Lords Public Services Committee launched an inquiry on designing a public services workforce fit for the future. The Committee published its report in July 2022. This set out how the public services workforce was ‘facing a crisis’ and that employers were ‘not doing enough to make public service careers attractive to prospective staff’ leading to recruitment difficulties: 

‘The inescapable demographic fact is that demand for services will rise far faster than the working-age population. The proportion of the population with multiple and complex needs will rise further, even as the labour market available will be smaller. The challenge is substantial: the public sector will have to deliver the same or better outcomes with less labour available’ (page 3). 

The report contained five key findings: 

1. Many public service workers face “intense pressure” and “suffering”, as well as unacceptable levels of discrimination. 
2. The potential of many staff to deliver services is largely untapped, with a need to think imaginatively about how and where they could be better deployed.
3. There are simple ways to enhance the “offer” of public service careers that should be taken.
4. Traditional routes into public service careers are limiting and action must be taken to make them more accessible.
5. The public sector needs to “train to retain” and must rethink its training and development offer to allow staff to meet their full potential. 

The Committee used the report to develop to develop an action strategy. The strategy includes taking steps to: 

• Understand the problem by collecting and sharing workforce data. 
• Get the most out of the workforce by empowering them and thinking imaginatively about where they could be deployed. 
• Make services work for users through meaningful consultation. 
• Use technology in the most productive and informative ways. 
• Prioritise preventative services. 
• End the culture problems driving people to leave. 
• Make the offer of public service careers more attractive by fixing pensions and offering flexible working. 
• Fix the broken brand of public service careers, and get an appealing message out. 
• Create new and accessible entry routes, and properly use those that already exist. 
• Train to retain: rethink development so that skills can be recognised and used more effectively across broad careers. 

In May 2022, the Local Government Association (LGA) published the Local Government Workforce Survey 2022. All heads of human resources [or in an equivalent position] in England were asked to complete an online survey between March and May 2022. Of the119 Councils that responded: 

• 94% said they were experiencing recruitment and retention difficulties. In response to these difficulties, 81% said they provided market supplements for some posts – with 48% providing market supplements for children’s social workers, just over 25% for planning officers, and 18% for building control officers. 
• Of those undertaking actions to help with recruitment and retention, over a quarter said they considered flexible working to be the most effective one. 
• 62% said they were considering increasing apprenticeships in 2022-2023. 

In July 2022, the Government Skills and Curriculum Unit and Leadership College for Government published research looking at the future issues facing public service leaders. This identified future pressures around: (1) moving public services online; (2) the changing role of the state; (3) rising complexity; and (4) new expectations of leaders. There was agreement on the central importance of collaboration – including the need for a holistic systems approach that reaches across traditional sectors of public services. 

In November 2022 the Government responded to the House of Lords Public Services Committee’s report. It cited several areas where positive progress had been made. These include: the introduction of a public sector apprenticeship target to boost starts across the public sector; a commitment of £500 million to improve the recruitment, retention, progression and staff wellbeing of the adult social care workforce; issuing digital and data guidance setting out the required capabilities for all senior civil servants; and running a supporting families programme.  

In terms of horizon scanning, Deloitte describes the Government worker of 2035: 

‘The government workforce will likely consist of technologically advanced generations with different employment expectations. These new workers may be less attached to “career tenure” and will expect to work on short-term, specialized projects where they can apply their innovative technology skills. Future public service workers will likely be interested in performing meaningful work with tangible evidence of social responsibility and impact, and leaders should be prepared to respond’. 

In a context of increased uncertainty and disruption; how can we ensure we have a good grasp of the current workforce (and gaps), and that we can attract, retain and develop the public sector employees we need for the future?  

Navigating the transition 

To make public sector careers attractive and ensure there is a sustainable workforce for the future, the House of Lords Public Services Committee identified how action is needed around:

• Workforce experience: a need to end the culture problems driving people to leave and ensuring the experiences of staff are broadly positive. 
• Workforce development: a need to get the most out of staff by empowering them to think about where they could be deployed. 
• Workforce recruitment: a need to fix the broken brand of public service careers by looking at the ‘offer’, including fixing pensions and offering flexible working. 
• Routes into careers: a need to create new and accessible entry routes, including apprenticeships and local talent pools – including those who may not be able to afford to do a degree. 
• Training: public sector employers must train to retrain and rethink development so that their skills can be used and recognised across broad careers. 

The Committee Chair, Baroness Armstrong of Hill Top said: “We need to reshape – and rebrand – public services to make then an attractive career choice. We can do that by empowering people, and providing innovative training with personal and professional development, so they feel valued and want to remain in these important careers. In addition, consultation with service users and those with lived experience will allow their input to be a real part of redesigning services to deliver exactly what is needed, when it is needed”. 

 Deloitte also highlighted mitigation strategies to support the transition to a sustainable workforce: 

• Prepare an inventory of the regulatory changes needed to accommodate a largely “non-career” employee model. 
• Conduct annual public service planning exercises using a more forward-looking approach comprised of employee predictive scenarios, and labour markets and technology trends as a way of mitigating a radical, disruptive shift to a new workforce model.
• Rethink current staff performance management practices to enhance the focus on individual accountability for results and career mobility.
• Collect and review success stories of interagency collaboration and public innovation projects.
• Increase virtual collaboration and use of digital technologies.
• Conduct periodic workforce studies and employee surveys to understand and map the expectations and preferences of a younger workforce.

More workers are economically inactivity now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Labour market data has shown that older workers and those without a higher education continue to drive the increase in inactivity. However, increased retirement is a more important reason for their increase in movements from employment to inactivity rather than necessarily increases in ill health. At the same time, the number of people moving into low-paying occupations from inactivity has also fallen. Evidence also shows as inactivity has risen, existing recruitment difficulties have been exacerbated. The Government is currently exploring a range of options and reforms to encourage people back into the workforce – from changes to sickness and disability benefit legislation to a bigger tax allowance for people aged over 50. Alongside the Government’s approach to employment support, such as DWP’s network of 50PLUS champions, the Centre for Ageing Better is calling for a national programme aimed at those aged 50 plus, and bringing forward by a year the People and Skills element of the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) to deliver place-based and responsive support. In a rural context, for example, limited access to affordable and accessible transport and/or childcare prevents some employees from taking on additional hours or accessing the wider labour market. 

What more can be done to support workers to return to fill labour and skills shortages in the public sector short term – and will the actions and mitigations outlined above encourage others to enter it?   

How many public sector employees work in rural? 

While data is available on people employed in central and local government, including regional and diversity analyses, it is not possible to determine how many employees are involved in supporting rural communities. For example, as of September 2022, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) had a headcount of 12,790 employees, comprising 10,630 full-time staff and 2,160 part-time staff (table 8). While Defra provides a breakdown of resources allocated to different priority outcomes in its delivery plan, it is not possible to determine how many employees have rural communities as all or part of their remit. Indeed, Defra works with colleagues in other Government departments to ensure that the needs and opportunities presented by rural communities and businesses are reflected in Government priorities.  

In terms of sectors, staffing is a make or break issue for the NHS in England. Workforce recruitment and retention difficulties have a direct impact on patient care and staff experience. The Parliamentary Inquiry into Rural Health and Care and numerous other reports have all highlighted the unmet and growing health and care needs of people living in rural areas alongside growing staff shortages. In a rural context, the Parliamentary Inquiry identified how: 

• There are workforce challenges due to high demand but low supply, with overall fewer NHS staff per head in rural areas compared to urban areas. 
• High employment rates and lower rates of economic inactivity means rural labour markets are relatively tight. 
• Individuals often develop their clinical career where they train and there is a need to enhance training and development opportunities in rural areas.  
• There is a need to create more specialist generalists and other fluid and adaptable workforce positions in rural areas. 
• The variety of roles and career development opportunities available in rural areas needs to be better promoted.  

The National Rural Crime Network (NRCN) has looked at the complex and varied demands on police officers and budgets in rural areas. Research commissioned from the University of Plymouth found: 

• Fixed, non-staff costs are higher amongst rural forces which cannot benefit from economies of scale due to the need to serve more dispersed, low density populations. For example, this equates to £32.1 million across the 10 smallest forces (by population), the equivalent of over 600 officers. Given that rural forces generally have smaller workforces than urban forces, this has implications for service delivery.
• Significantly higher round-trip distances are found in forces serving low-density populations, increasing costs. As rural forces have lower officer numbers, the burden per officer is also higher by up to 65%.
• All forces experience seasonal variations, but the minimum-relative-to-maximum variation, especially for daily crime and Anti-Social Behaviour is far greater in rural forces, especially those with National Parks and coastal areas attracting holiday-makers.

While workforce issues are everywhere, these examples illustrate how they can be more pronounced in rural areas. Rural residents often have different (and greater) needs, are spatially dispersed, and require services from staff with different skillsets. This is not always reflected in Government funding support or in workforce planning and development.     

If we are to address rural workforce challenges now and into the future, there are three important questions we need to respond to: (1) how can we reduce demand? (2) How can we deliver services in a way that means we have a more sustainable workforce? (3) How can we ensure the current and future workforce are in tune with rural needs, circumstances and opportunities? 

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Jessica is a researcher/project manager at Rose Regeneration and a senior research fellow at The National Centre for Rural Health and Care (NCRHC). She is currently evaluating a support programme for patients waiting to receive NHS and local government services; and a Warm Hubs scheme. Jessica also sits on the board of a Housing Association that supports older people and a charity supporting Cambridgeshire’s rural communities. 

She can be contacted by email jessica.sellick@roseregeneration.co.uk. 

Website: http://roseregeneration.co.uk/https://www.ncrhc.org/ 

Blog: http://ruralwords.co.uk/ 

Twitter: @RoseRegen 

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